New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

509.57 – 305.62

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

476 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 38.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 757.2 ±8.1

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 169.19Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 45.01Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 295.37Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.6 ±9.8

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 57.8Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 80.04Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 167.78Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1073, 9644, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

509.6 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1073, 9644, 125

Auto

90.0 18%

Teleop

297.1 59%

Endgame

112.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 509, 58, 10254

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 509, 58, 10254

Auto

48.5 16%

Teleop

156.3 53%

Endgame

92.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.94 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score509.6pts

Blue projected score305.6pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 204
Score range: 241–575
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 739 vs event baseline 361.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

757.2Season APEX497.6

90Auto48.5

297.1Teleop156.3

112.7Endgame92.5

114Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	24
teleop	329	140
endgame	54	99
foul	15	0
total	476	263

Result

Final score

476 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 38.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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