New England FIRST District Championship - Burns Division presented by GlobalFoundries

Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

551.01 – 588.79

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

442 – 470

Prediction correct · off by 113.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 755 ±8.8

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 61.21Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 190.77Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 299.03Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 804.2 ±8.1

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 49.16Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 241.95Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 297.68Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1729, 195, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

551 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1729, 195, 125

Auto

117.7 22%

Teleop

293.3 55%

Endgame

125.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9644, 1768, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

588.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9644, 1768, 5687

Auto

121.4 21%

Teleop

325.5 57%

Endgame

127.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score551pts

Blue projected score588.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample232alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.8
Score range: 486–654
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 912 vs event baseline 360.2.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

755Season APEX804.2

117.7Auto121.4

293.3Teleop325.5

125Endgame127.3

102Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	125	134
teleop	220	226
endgame	87	75
foul	10	35
total	442	470

Result

Final score

442 – 470

Prediction correct · off by 113.9 pts

Match videos

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