Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.74 – 201.14

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 250

Prediction missed · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.1 ±13.3

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 83.76Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 78.71Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 49.27Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.6 ±12.2

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 82.38Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 78.59Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 40.17Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6175, 8255, 4226

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6175, 8255, 4226

Auto

39.5 19%

Teleop

123.4 59%

Endgame

46.0 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2883, 3293, 3313

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2883, 3293, 3313

Auto

60.5 31%

Teleop

88.8 46%

Endgame

43.9 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score211.7pts

Blue projected score201.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.6
Score range: 174–239
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.1Season APEX478.6

39.5Auto60.5

123.4Teleop88.8

46Endgame43.9

41Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	77
teleop	107	120
endgame	36	48
foul	0	5
total	188	250

Result

Final score

188 – 250

Prediction missed · off by 36.3 pts

Match videos

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