Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
251.01 – 241.15
53%47%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
269 – 300
Prediction missed · off by 38.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.8 ±17.1
Season APEX 115Event APEX 70.86Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 88.51Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 91.64Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 44.27Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 80.13Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 116.75Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6146, 5638, 5653
83
/ 100 compatProjected
251 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 6146, 5638, 5653
Auto
41.9 17%
Teleop
139.5 57%
Endgame
63.2 26%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4539, 3277, 1710
86
/ 100 compatProjected
241.2 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 4539, 3277, 1710
Auto
53.3 22%
Teleop
131.2 55%
Endgame
55.0 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.51
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score251pts
Blue projected score241.2pts
Red win probability53%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 63%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 9.9
- Score range
- 215–277
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
407.8Season APEX534.9
41.9Auto53.3
139.5Teleop131.2
63.2Endgame55
50Consistency76
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 44 | 59 |
| teleop | 170 | 181 |
| endgame | 50 | 60 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 269 | 300 |
Result
Final score
269 – 300
Prediction missed · off by 38.4 pts
Match videos
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