Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.28 – 222.61

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

115 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 79.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.1 ±13.3

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 93.11Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 87.85Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 57.32Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 585.7 ±11

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 87.23Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 111.96Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 23.42Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6175, 8255, 4226

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6175, 8255, 4226

Auto

38.8 17%

Teleop

140.1 60%

Endgame

55.8 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7028, 4593, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7028, 4593, 7530

Auto

38.9 18%

Teleop

132.7 61%

Endgame

47.3 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score238.3pts

Blue projected score222.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.7
Score range: 197–264
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 144.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.1Season APEX585.7

38.8Auto38.9

140.1Teleop132.7

55.8Endgame47.3

32Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	34
teleop	61	148
endgame	11	77
foul	0	0
total	115	259

Result

Final score

115 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 79.8 pts

Match videos

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