Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.85 – 191.03

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

240 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 32.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.6 ±16

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 87.36Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 52.59Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 86.9Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.6 ±12.2

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 77.45Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 75.94Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 37.64Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4607, 7578, 11283

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4607, 7578, 11283

Auto

43.0 19%

Teleop

120.6 54%

Endgame

61.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2883, 3293, 3313

/ 100 compat

Projected

191 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2883, 3293, 3313

Auto

58.2 32%

Teleop

80.8 44%

Endgame

43.4 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score226.9pts

Blue projected score191pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.8
Score range: 165–253
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 143.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415.6Season APEX478.6

43Auto58.2

120.6Teleop80.8

61.8Endgame43.4

4Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	71
teleop	131	120
endgame	68	47
foul	0	5
total	240	243

Result

Final score

240 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 32.6 pts

Match videos

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