Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.52 – 218.86

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±11

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 11.39Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 99.16Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 120.97Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.4 ±13.9

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 89.76Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 52.97Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 76.13Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7048, 3276, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7048, 3276, 7257

Auto

46.0 20%

Teleop

135.6 60%

Endgame

44.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2654, 4181, 876

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2654, 4181, 876

Auto

43.7 20%

Teleop

115.6 54%

Endgame

56.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score231.5pts

Blue projected score218.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.7
Score range: 193–258
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 143.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.7Season APEX378.4

46Auto43.7

135.6Teleop115.6

44Endgame56.2

44Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	39
teleop	117	91
endgame	38	31
foul	0	10
total	205	171

Result

Final score

205 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 pts

Match videos

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