Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
187.34 – 255.82
30%70%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
195 – 209
Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.6 ±12.2
Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 76.03Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 75.46Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 88Event APEX 35.85Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 50.53Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 83.49Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 121.8Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2883, 3293, 3313
78
/ 100 compatProjected
187.3 pts
~1.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 2883, 3293, 3313
Auto
55.2 31%
Teleop
79.7 45%
Endgame
42.6 24%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 4%
Blue · 4539, 3277, 1710
85
/ 100 compatProjected
255.8 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 4539, 3277, 1710
Auto
47.3 19%
Teleop
145.9 57%
Endgame
60.9 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 4%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.97
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score187.3pts
Blue projected score255.8pts
Red win probability30%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -68.5
- Score range
- 161–282
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
478.6Season APEX534.9
55.2Auto47.3
79.7Teleop145.9
42.6Endgame60.9
70Consistency67
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 69 | 72 |
| teleop | 78 | 95 |
| endgame | 43 | 42 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 195 | 209 |
Result
Final score
195 – 209
Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts
Match videos
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