Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

222.93 – 239.27

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

243 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.6 ±16

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 85.61Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 51.17Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 86.15Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.8 ±17.1

6146Blackjacks

Season APEX 115Event APEX 65.35Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5638JukeBots

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 85.11Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 88.81Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4607, 7578, 11283

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4607, 7578, 11283

Auto

42.7 19%

Teleop

115.3 52%

Endgame

63.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6146, 5638, 5653

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6146, 5638, 5653

Auto

38.7 17%

Teleop

133.4 57%

Endgame

62.1 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score222.9pts

Blue projected score239.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.3
Score range: 198–264
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 528 vs event baseline 140.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415.6Season APEX407.8

42.7Auto38.7

115.3Teleop133.4

63.2Endgame62.1

4Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	54
teleop	139	157
endgame	58	64
foul	0	10
total	243	285

Result

Final score

243 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Match videos

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