Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

214.67 – 221.96

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

240 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.7 ±11

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 83.96Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 109.06Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 21.65Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.4 ±13.9

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 91.27Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 54.5Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 76.19Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7028, 4593, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7028, 4593, 7530

Auto

42.4 20%

Teleop

133.5 62%

Endgame

39.5 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2654, 4181, 876

/ 100 compat

Projected

222 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2654, 4181, 876

Auto

43.2 20%

Teleop

117.5 54%

Endgame

58.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score214.7pts

Blue projected score222pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.3
Score range: 190–247
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 451 vs event baseline 139.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.7Season APEX378.4

42.4Auto43.2

133.5Teleop117.5

39.5Endgame58.5

42Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	45
teleop	126	111
endgame	67	50
foul	15	5
total	240	211

Result

Final score

240 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 18.1 pts

Match videos

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