Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

259.4 – 247.27

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 222

Prediction missed · off by 63.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±11

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 19.83Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 109.42Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 130.15Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.1 ±13.3

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 60.48Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 89.95Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 96.84Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7048, 3276, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7048, 3276, 7257

Auto

47.1 19%

Teleop

144.0 58%

Endgame

59.3 24%

Strengths

· 7257 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4226, 8255, 6175

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4226, 8255, 6175

Auto

41.3 17%

Teleop

141.0 58%

Endgame

61.8 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score259.4pts

Blue projected score247.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.1
Score range: 222–284
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 138.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.7Season APEX366.1

47.1Auto41.3

144Teleop141

59.3Endgame61.8

36Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	34
teleop	109	144
endgame	4	39
foul	0	5
total	158	222

Result

Final score

158 – 222

Prediction missed · off by 63.3 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.