Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

223.76 – 253.05

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.7 ±11

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 91.34Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 110.1Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 22.32Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±11

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 20.35Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 105.38Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 127.32Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7028, 4593, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7028, 4593, 7530

Auto

40.0 18%

Teleop

132.9 60%

Endgame

47.5 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7048, 3276, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7048, 3276, 7257

Auto

47.9 19%

Teleop

137.2 55%

Endgame

63.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score223.8pts

Blue projected score253.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.3
Score range: 197–280
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.7Season APEX489.7

40Auto47.9

132.9Teleop137.2

47.5Endgame63

27Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	54
teleop	82	140
endgame	36	90
foul	0	5
total	157	289

Result

Final score

157 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 pts

Match videos

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