Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.9 – 210.14

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

290 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 41 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±11

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 18.25Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 103.26Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 125.39Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.6 ±12.2

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 85.71Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 81.25Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 43.18Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7048, 3276, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7048, 3276, 7257

Auto

48.4 20%

Teleop

135.8 56%

Endgame

57.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2883, 3293, 3313

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2883, 3293, 3313

Auto

63.1 31%

Teleop

94.8 47%

Endgame

44.7 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score246.9pts

Blue projected score210.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.8
Score range: 183–274
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 539 vs event baseline 150.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.7Season APEX478.6

48.4Auto63.1

135.8Teleop94.8

57.8Endgame44.7

14Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	74
teleop	146	115
endgame	94	55
foul	5	5
total	290	249

Result

Final score

290 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 41 pts

Match videos

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