Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.47 – 224.19

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

247 – 353

Prediction missed · off by 68.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.8 ±17.1

6146Blackjacks

Season APEX 115Event APEX 72.44Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5638JukeBots

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 89.54Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 92.49Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±11

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 10.82Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 95.35Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 118.02Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6146, 5638, 5653

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6146, 5638, 5653

Auto

42.3 17%

Teleop

145.3 59%

Endgame

60.6 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7048, 3276, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7048, 3276, 7257

Auto

46.8 21%

Teleop

130.3 59%

Endgame

42.2 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score254.5pts

Blue projected score224.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.3
Score range: 198–280
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 600 vs event baseline 146.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.8Season APEX489.7

42.3Auto46.8

145.3Teleop130.3

60.6Endgame42.2

45Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	60
teleop	106	157
endgame	73	131
foul	5	5
total	247	353

Result

Final score

247 – 353

Prediction missed · off by 68.1 pts

Match videos

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