Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.9 – 99.74

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 118.7 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.5 ±14.1

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX -Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX -Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 28.86Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.9 ±13.9

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 42.86Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX -Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 38.86Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3276, 6709, 5658

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3276, 6709, 5658

Auto

14.5 25%

Teleop

25.2 44%

Endgame

18.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7578, 4181, 8255

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7578, 4181, 8255

Auto

16.3 17%

Teleop

59.6 61%

Endgame

22.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.9pts

Blue projected score99.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.8
Score range: 46–119
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 108.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.5Season APEX334.9

3.7Auto10.9

7.1Teleop50.6

10.9Endgame18.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	44
teleop	114	89
endgame	29	79
foul	0	0
total	190	212

Result

Final score

190 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 118.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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