Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.27 – 163.51

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.6 ±15.6

8188Grand Force

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX -2.35Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4239WARPSPEED

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 26.39Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 27.23Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.2 ±16.3

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 54.87Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5638JukeBots

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 84.72Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4480UC-Botics

Season APEX 86Event APEX 23.92Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8188, 4239, 3275

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8188, 4239, 3275

Auto

14.8 31%

Teleop

19.1 40%

Endgame

14.1 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4181, 5638, 4480

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.5 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4181, 5638, 4480

Auto

23.8 15%

Teleop

88.7 56%

Endgame

47.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.3pts

Blue projected score163.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.2
Score range: 26–189
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 139.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.6Season APEX276.2

14.8Auto23.8

19.1Teleop88.7

14.1Endgame47.3

12Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	17
teleop	13	94
endgame	14	44
foul	0	15
total	44	170

Result

Final score

44 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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