Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.38 – 121.67

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.4 ±17.7

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 4.98Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9745Lazer Sharkz

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 22.19Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 45.21Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.5 ±16.9

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 107.89Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 8.69Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

877Pi Rho 'botics @ North Star

Provisional

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 5.09Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4198, 9745, 4360

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4198, 9745, 4360

Auto

12.0 18%

Teleop

42.5 65%

Endgame

10.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3276, 3023, 877

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3276, 3023, 877

Auto

31.7 27%

Teleop

62.2 52%

Endgame

25.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.4pts

Blue projected score121.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.3
Score range: 47–147
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 139.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.4Season APEX351.5

12Auto31.7

42.5Teleop62.2

10.7Endgame25.1

90Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	30
teleop	18	81
endgame	29	15
foul	5	10
total	69	136

Result

Final score

69 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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