Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.95 – 231.65

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

219 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.8 ±15.5

6453Bog Bots!

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 28.86Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 77.55Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 119.54Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 486.4 ±15.6

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 70.49Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 81.42Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 79.74Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6453, 2883, 1710

/ 100 compat

Projected

226 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6453, 2883, 1710

Auto

49.4 22%

Teleop

122.5 56%

Endgame

48.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3293, 11283, 4607

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3293, 11283, 4607

Auto

46.6 21%

Teleop

114.3 50%

Endgame

66.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score226pts

Blue projected score231.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.7
Score range: 201–257
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 138.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.8Season APEX486.4

49.4Auto46.6

122.5Teleop114.3

48.7Endgame66

69Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	50
teleop	96	129
endgame	40	96
foul	0	0
total	219	275

Result

Final score

219 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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