Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.31 – 134.34

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

77 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441 ±12.9

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 87.67Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 25.98Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3026Orange Crush Robotics

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 17.66Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.6 ±15

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 55.12Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 59.62Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3134The Accelerators

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 19.6Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7028, 7530, 3026

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7028, 7530, 3026

Auto

37.5 28%

Teleop

73.1 55%

Endgame

21.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6709, 7578, 3134

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6709, 7578, 3134

Auto

26.8 21%

Teleop

52.9 42%

Endgame

45.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.3pts

Blue projected score134.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3
Score range: 106–159
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 139.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441Season APEX248.6

37.5Auto26.8

73.1Teleop52.9

21.5Endgame45.5

64Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	24
teleop	35	24
endgame	28	0
foul	0	5
total	77	53

Result

Final score

77 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 67.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.