Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.86 – 128.97

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.8 ±16.3

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 89.58Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10173Minot Syber-Sentinels

Season APEX 52Event APEX -6.64Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6146Blackjacks

Season APEX 115Event APEX 63.92Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±13.9

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 28.46Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 5.99Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 94.52Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2654, 10173, 6146

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2654, 10173, 6146

Auto

40.2 28%

Teleop

65.9 46%

Endgame

37.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5658, 5464, 5653

/ 100 compat

Projected

129 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5658, 5464, 5653

Auto

37.0 30%

Teleop

54.3 45%

Endgame

30.2 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score146.9pts

Blue projected score129pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.9
Score range: 104–172
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.8Season APEX325.1

40.2Auto37

65.9Teleop54.3

37.4Endgame30.2

41Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	25
teleop	60	28
endgame	46	18
foul	0	0
total	144	71

Result

Final score

144 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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