Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.12 – 198.29

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.1 ±13.5

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 100.28Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 11.99Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 44.85Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308 ±18.8

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 91.28Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5638JukeBots

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 83.75Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8586Firebirds Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 23.26Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4593, 8878, 4539

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4593, 8878, 4539

Auto

33.7 21%

Teleop

100.4 63%

Endgame

24.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8255, 5638, 8586

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8255, 5638, 8586

Auto

29.4 15%

Teleop

119.2 60%

Endgame

49.3 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.1pts

Blue projected score198.3pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.2
Score range: 132–223
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 139.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.1Season APEX308

33.7Auto29.4

100.4Teleop119.2

24.2Endgame49.3

42Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	21
teleop	148	95
endgame	26	67
foul	0	5
total	214	188

Result

Final score

214 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 33.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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