Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

51.17 – 51.17

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 65.8 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.9 ±17.7

8586Firebirds Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX -Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX -Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6628KMS BOTKICKERS

Season APEX 63.2Event APEX -Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.9 ±15.9

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX -Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX -Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3300Midwest WARRIORS

Provisional

Season APEX 45Event APEX -Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8586, 4539, 6628

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8586, 4539, 6628

Auto

15.3 30%

Teleop

25.6 50%

Endgame

10.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3277, 5653, 3300

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3277, 5653, 3300

Auto

15.3 30%

Teleop

25.6 50%

Endgame

10.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.2pts

Blue projected score51.2pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 33–69
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 102.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.9Season APEX395.9

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	12
teleop	53	76
endgame	9	71
foul	0	0
total	75	159

Result

Final score

75 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 65.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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