Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

122.43 – 222.76

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.8 ±15

7677Bodacious Bulldogs

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 15.23Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 61.28Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 45.92Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.2 ±16.2

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 23.43Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 126.75Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 72.58Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7677, 7578, 4360

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7677, 7578, 4360

Auto

20.5 16%

Teleop

78.9 63%

Endgame

26.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3278, 7257, 11283

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3278, 7257, 11283

Auto

30.5 14%

Teleop

103.9 49%

Endgame

77.5 37%

Strengths

· 7257 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score122.4pts

Blue projected score222.8pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.3
Score range: 97–248
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 138.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.8Season APEX380.2

20.5Auto30.5

78.9Teleop103.9

26.7Endgame77.5

52Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	33
teleop	50	156
endgame	29	78
foul	15	0
total	121	267

Result

Final score

121 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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