Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.31 – 207.93

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.8 ±13.5

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 13.27Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 82.34Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 40.7Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.1 ±15.8

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 36.89Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 101.05Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6146Blackjacks

Season APEX 115Event APEX 69.99Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3023, 3277, 3313

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3023, 3277, 3313

Auto

26.3 21%

Teleop

61.6 48%

Endgame

39.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3275, 5653, 6146

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3275, 5653, 6146

Auto

32.8 16%

Teleop

106.4 52%

Endgame

67.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.3pts

Blue projected score207.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.6
Score range: 111–233
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 138.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.8Season APEX382.1

26.3Auto32.8

61.6Teleop106.4

39.5Endgame67.1

104Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	53
teleop	48	74
endgame	63	20
foul	0	10
total	128	157

Result

Final score

128 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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