Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.31 – 121.63

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 74 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.7 ±14.1

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX -4.98Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 93.42Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7235Red Lake Ogichidaag

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 17.87Rank 14Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.6 ±14.1

3134The Accelerators

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 7.87Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 91.86Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7068Mechanical Masterminds

Season APEX 81Event APEX 21.9Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8878, 1710, 7235

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8878, 1710, 7235

Auto

28.6 31%

Teleop

44.4 47%

Endgame

20.7 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3134, 4593, 7068

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3134, 4593, 7068

Auto

24.9 21%

Teleop

72.2 61%

Endgame

20.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.3pts

Blue projected score121.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.3
Score range: 81–147
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.7Season APEX374.6

28.6Auto24.9

44.4Teleop72.2

20.7Endgame20.6

23Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	33
teleop	110	86
endgame	47	58
foul	0	0
total	199	177

Result

Final score

199 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 74 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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