Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.29 – 97.86

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 50.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.9 ±17.7

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 45.54Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3300Midwest WARRIORS

Provisional

Season APEX 45Event APEX 5.5Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 71.25Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295 ±17.7

7677Bodacious Bulldogs

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 6.75Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 76.81Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6453Bog Bots!

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 14.3Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4360, 3300, 876

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4360, 3300, 876

Auto

17.0 14%

Teleop

65.1 55%

Endgame

36.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7677, 8255, 6453

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7677, 8255, 6453

Auto

12.6 12%

Teleop

54.5 52%

Endgame

37.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score122.3pts

Blue projected score97.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.4
Score range: 73–147
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 137.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.9Season APEX295

17Auto12.6

65.1Teleop54.5

36.2Endgame37.8

70Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	21
teleop	63	127
endgame	16	46
foul	5	0
total	117	194

Result

Final score

117 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 50.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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