Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.83 – 49.95

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.1 ±18.2

4239WARPSPEED

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 24.77Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8586Firebirds Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 33.9Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10173Minot Syber-Sentinels

Season APEX 52Event APEX 0.16Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.3 ±17.7

3026Orange Crush Robotics

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX -0.53Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9745Lazer Sharkz

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 1.38Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 49.1Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4239, 8586, 10173

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4239, 8586, 10173

Auto

28.0 49%

Teleop

26.1 46%

Endgame

2.8 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3026, 9745, 7578

/ 100 compat

Projected

50 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3026, 9745, 7578

Auto

17.6 39%

Teleop

21.4 48%

Endgame

5.9 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.8pts

Blue projected score50pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.9
Score range: 25–84
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.1Season APEX237.3

28Auto17.6

26.1Teleop21.4

2.8Endgame5.9

68Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	32
teleop	11	93
endgame	17	37
foul	0	0
total	38	162

Result

Final score

38 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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