Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.21 – 178.34

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 2.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.5 ±17.3

6749tERAbytes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.9Event APEX 46.67Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 14.45Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 24.09Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.6 ±12.9

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 24.24Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 130.06Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 24.04Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6749, 3023, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6749, 3023, 7530

Auto

21.9 28%

Teleop

41.5 52%

Endgame

16.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7048, 7257, 5658

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7048, 7257, 5658

Auto

27.8 17%

Teleop

79.3 48%

Endgame

58.4 35%

Strengths

· 7257 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.2pts

Blue projected score178.3pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.1
Score range: 60–203
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 139.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.5Season APEX325.6

21.9Auto27.8

41.5Teleop79.3

16Endgame58.4

85Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	63
teleop	45	71
endgame	7	49
foul	0	0
total	85	183

Result

Final score

85 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 2.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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