Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.83 – 235.98

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 49.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.2 ±14.1

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 74.39Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7068Mechanical Masterminds

Season APEX 81Event APEX 12.3Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 19.14Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.4 ±14.9

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 71.03Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 94.84Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6146Blackjacks

Season APEX 115Event APEX 70.11Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2883, 7068, 3278

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2883, 7068, 3278

Auto

25.2 24%

Teleop

48.4 46%

Endgame

31.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7028, 6175, 6146

/ 100 compat

Projected

236 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7028, 6175, 6146

Auto

35.1 15%

Teleop

143.1 61%

Endgame

58.0 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.8pts

Blue projected score236pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -130.1
Score range: 81–261
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 136.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.2Season APEX531.4

25.2Auto35.1

48.4Teleop143.1

31.9Endgame58

83Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	50
teleop	76	159
endgame	40	62
foul	10	0
total	170	271

Result

Final score

170 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 49.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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