Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

208.32 – 267.5

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.4 ±12.9

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 85.67Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 84.78Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 37.87Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.7 ±11.7

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 81.85Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 102.07Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 83.58Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4607, 3277, 3275

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4607, 3277, 3275

Auto

29.2 14%

Teleop

120.7 57%

Endgame

61.6 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4593, 3276, 2654

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4593, 3276, 2654

Auto

42.7 16%

Teleop

159.2 58%

Endgame

71.6 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score208.3pts

Blue projected score267.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.2
Score range: 184–292
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 560 vs event baseline 134.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.4Season APEX582.7

29.2Auto42.7

120.7Teleop159.2

61.6Endgame71.6

14Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	74
teleop	87	211
endgame	74	45
foul	15	10
total	220	340

Result

Final score

220 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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