Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.28 – 128.74

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

162 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299 ±14.5

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 31.26Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX -1.37Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 48.39Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.1 ±17

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 69.25Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4480UC-Botics

Season APEX 86Event APEX 21.07Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 38.42Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4539, 4198, 6709

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4539, 4198, 6709

Auto

17.6 22%

Teleop

45.7 58%

Endgame

15.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11283, 4480, 3313

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11283, 4480, 3313

Auto

21.2 18%

Teleop

60.5 52%

Endgame

34.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.3pts

Blue projected score128.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.5
Score range: 54–153
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 133.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299Season APEX287.1

17.6Auto21.2

45.7Teleop60.5

15.4Endgame34.5

132Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	34
teleop	84	82
endgame	42	54
foul	0	0
total	162	170

Result

Final score

162 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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