Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.68 – 87.92

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.5 ±15.9

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 29.47Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 137.16Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6453Bog Bots!

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 17.05Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.2 ±17.7

9745Lazer Sharkz

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 6.95Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8188Grand Force

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX -10.29Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 91.26Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7530, 7257, 6453

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7530, 7257, 6453

Auto

35.3 21%

Teleop

86.3 51%

Endgame

47.4 28%

Strengths

· 7257 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9745, 8188, 8255

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9745, 8188, 8255

Auto

16.0 20%

Teleop

42.0 52%

Endgame

22.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score183.7pts

Blue projected score87.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.8
Score range: 64–208
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 134.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.5Season APEX283.2

35.3Auto16

86.3Teleop42

47.4Endgame22.5

112Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	34
teleop	77	9
endgame	52	8
foul	5	0
total	151	51

Result

Final score

151 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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