Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.2 – 89.28

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.4 ±15.6

7235Red Lake Ogichidaag

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 15.63Rank 14Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2450Wind Chill

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX -3.19Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 44.76Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.7 ±20.5

3300Midwest WARRIORS

Provisional

Season APEX 45Event APEX 13.31Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 32.87Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8586Firebirds Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 43.1Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7235, 2450, 4360

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7235, 2450, 4360

Auto

16.6 32%

Teleop

27.4 53%

Endgame

7.6 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3300, 5658, 8586

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3300, 5658, 8586

Auto

22.9 29%

Teleop

33.2 41%

Endgame

24.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57.2pts

Blue projected score89.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.1
Score range: 33–113
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 135.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.4Season APEX167.7

16.6Auto22.9

27.4Teleop33.2

7.6Endgame24.2

11Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	21
teleop	22	14
endgame	26	13
foul	0	0
total	64	48

Result

Final score

64 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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