Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.62 – 167.7

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341 ±14.5

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 23.11Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 86.13Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 81.38Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.9 ±12.9

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 42.87Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 106.51Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 18.32Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8878, 2654, 6175

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8878, 2654, 6175

Auto

33.8 18%

Teleop

106.3 56%

Endgame

48.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4360, 1710, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4360, 1710, 7530

Auto

49.8 31%

Teleop

80.4 50%

Endgame

29.2 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score190.6pts

Blue projected score167.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.9
Score range: 140–219
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 154.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341Season APEX453.9

33.8Auto49.8

106.3Teleop80.4

48.3Endgame29.2

38Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	43
teleop	102	108
endgame	72	3
foul	5	5
total	205	159

Result

Final score

205 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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