Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.87 – 127.13

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.8 ±14.5

3026Orange Crush Robotics

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX -14.51Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 50.26Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 68.12Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±15

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 18.27Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6628KMS BOTKICKERS

Season APEX 63.2Event APEX 14.02Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 94.84Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3026, 4181, 876

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3026, 4181, 876

Auto

35.4 36%

Teleop

30.4 31%

Endgame

33.1 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3278, 6628, 6175

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3278, 6628, 6175

Auto

22.6 18%

Teleop

74.6 61%

Endgame

25.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.9pts

Blue projected score127.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.3
Score range: 80–151
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 134.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.8Season APEX277.8

35.4Auto22.6

30.4Teleop74.6

33.1Endgame25.9

80Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	22
teleop	109	85
endgame	44	42
foul	0	5
total	184	154

Result

Final score

184 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 53.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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