Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.55 – 161.97

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

278 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 514.1 ±14.4

6146Blackjacks

Season APEX 115Event APEX 61.84Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 56.59Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 92.12Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.5 ±14.1

4480UC-Botics

Season APEX 86Event APEX 22.64Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 47.71Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 91.62Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6146, 3293, 3276

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6146, 3293, 3276

Auto

42.6 20%

Teleop

108.2 51%

Endgame

61.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4480, 6709, 4593

/ 100 compat

Projected

162 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4480, 6709, 4593

Auto

23.7 15%

Teleop

106.8 67%

Endgame

29.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score210.6pts

Blue projected score162pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.6
Score range: 138–235
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 132.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

514.1Season APEX401.5

42.6Auto23.7

108.2Teleop106.8

61.2Endgame29.6

30Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	36
teleop	144	80
endgame	77	45
foul	0	0
total	278	161

Result

Final score

278 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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