Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.22 – 99.43

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.8 ±15

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 14.82Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 1.93Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7068Mechanical Masterminds

Season APEX 81Event APEX 18.47Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.1 ±17.7

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 25.13Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6749tERAbytes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.9Event APEX 44.5Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4239WARPSPEED

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 29.8Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3023, 4198, 7068

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3023, 4198, 7068

Auto

14.7 38%

Teleop

3.1 8%

Endgame

20.9 54%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4539, 6749, 4239

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4539, 6749, 4239

Auto

14.4 14%

Teleop

67.5 67%

Endgame

18.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score35.2pts

Blue projected score99.4pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.2
Score range: 11–123
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 132.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.8Season APEX241.1

14.7Auto14.4

3.1Teleop67.5

20.9Endgame18.2

105Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	34
teleop	11	77
endgame	13	22
foul	0	0
total	38	133

Result

Final score

38 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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