Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.79 – 151.27

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.6 ±13.9

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 4.53Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 73.54Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 32.72Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.1 ±13.5

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 59.02Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 14.17Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 78.08Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5464, 2654, 3313

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5464, 2654, 3313

Auto

21.9 22%

Teleop

41.8 42%

Endgame

35.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7578, 8878, 2883

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7578, 8878, 2883

Auto

35.6 24%

Teleop

77.0 52%

Endgame

36.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.8pts

Blue projected score151.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.5
Score range: 87–175
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 132.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.6Season APEX411.1

21.9Auto35.6

41.8Teleop77

35Endgame36.7

108Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	50
teleop	72	55
endgame	39	9
foul	5	10
total	160	124

Result

Final score

160 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 38.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.