Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.45 – 93.81

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.1 ±19.8

3026Orange Crush Robotics

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX -12.77Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8586Firebirds Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 48.04Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 66.18Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.7 ±15.6

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 50.62Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 30.98Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5929Raider Robotics

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 12.21Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3026, 8586, 11283

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3026, 8586, 11283

Auto

27.7 27%

Teleop

51.3 50%

Endgame

23.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5658, 3275, 5929

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5658, 3275, 5929

Auto

5.6 6%

Teleop

57.9 63%

Endgame

28.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.5pts

Blue projected score93.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.6
Score range: 70–125
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 133.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.1Season APEX215.7

27.7Auto5.6

51.3Teleop57.9

23Endgame28.4

21Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	20
teleop	42	19
endgame	55	27
foul	0	5
total	111	71

Result

Final score

111 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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