Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.88 – 105.87

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 71.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 609.4 ±12.4

7235Red Lake Ogichidaag

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX -2.53Rank 14Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 69.43Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 73.98Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±17.7

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 78.33Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6453Bog Bots!

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 15.33Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2450Wind Chill

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 12.21Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7235, 3276, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7235, 3276, 7028

Auto

44.9 31%

Teleop

76.3 53%

Endgame

22.8 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 876, 6453, 2450

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 876, 6453, 2450

Auto

18.5 18%

Teleop

54.6 53%

Endgame

30.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score140.9pts

Blue projected score105.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35
Score range: 82–165
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 132.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

609.4Season APEX307

44.9Auto18.5

76.3Teleop54.6

22.8Endgame30.6

87Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	29
teleop	149	28
endgame	62	20
foul	15	5
total	260	82

Result

Final score

260 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 71.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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