Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.26 – 86.76

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 84.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.5 ±16.3

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 69.22Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 14.49Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9745Lazer Sharkz

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX -10.45Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±15

4480UC-Botics

Season APEX 86Event APEX 9.11Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 1.52Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 76.13Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5653, 7048, 9745

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5653, 7048, 9745

Auto

-2.1 0%

Teleop

35.5 54%

Endgame

32.5 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4480, 3278, 8255

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4480, 3278, 8255

Auto

17.0 19%

Teleop

48.0 53%

Endgame

25.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score73.3pts

Blue projected score86.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.5
Score range: 49–111
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 131.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.5Season APEX323.5

-2.1Auto17

35.5Teleop48

32.5Endgame25.7

146Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	37
teleop	85	102
endgame	29	46
foul	0	0
total	144	185

Result

Final score

144 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 84.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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