Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.67 – 107.29

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 54 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.8 ±18.1

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 54.24Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 85.37Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5638JukeBots

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 90.06Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.9 ±17.7

9745Lazer Sharkz

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 23.52Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 72.06Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 11.71Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7578, 11283, 5638

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7578, 11283, 5638

Auto

26.7 12%

Teleop

132.1 58%

Endgame

67.6 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9745, 876, 3023

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9745, 876, 3023

Auto

21.7 22%

Teleop

55.5 56%

Endgame

22.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score229.7pts

Blue projected score107.3pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.4
Score range: 79–258
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 154.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.8Season APEX291.9

26.7Auto21.7

132.1Teleop55.5

67.6Endgame22.3

49Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	13
teleop	96	40
endgame	46	21
foul	0	5
total	150	79

Result

Final score

150 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 54 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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