Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.21 – 86.07

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.4 ±15

7068Mechanical Masterminds

Season APEX 81Event APEX 12.52Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 46.13Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 71.56Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.9 ±18.8

3300Midwest WARRIORS

Provisional

Season APEX 45Event APEX 29.26Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX -6.71Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5638JukeBots

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 63.52Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7068, 6709, 2654

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7068, 6709, 2654

Auto

34.4 27%

Teleop

53.6 42%

Endgame

40.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3300, 4198, 5638

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3300, 4198, 5638

Auto

10.1 13%

Teleop

45.8 59%

Endgame

21.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130.2pts

Blue projected score86.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.1
Score range: 62–154
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 131.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.4Season APEX251.9

34.4Auto10.1

53.6Teleop45.8

40.6Endgame21.6

133Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	18
teleop	76	75
endgame	81	37
foul	0	5
total	169	135

Result

Final score

169 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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