Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

104.05 – 97.74

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.6 ±14.5

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 59.13Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4239WARPSPEED

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 28.67Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6628KMS BOTKICKERS

Season APEX 63.2Event APEX 16.25Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.1 ±14.5

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 40.26Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7677Bodacious Bulldogs

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 32.66Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 24.82Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3293, 4239, 6628

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3293, 4239, 6628

Auto

22.1 24%

Teleop

42.2 45%

Endgame

29.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4226, 7677, 8878

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4226, 7677, 8878

Auto

16.3 17%

Teleop

52.7 54%

Endgame

28.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score104.1pts

Blue projected score97.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.3
Score range: 74–128
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 132.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.6Season APEX253.1

22.1Auto16.3

42.2Teleop52.7

29.1Endgame28.3

65Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	19
teleop	59	27
endgame	21	11
foul	0	0
total	111	57

Result

Final score

111 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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