Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.99 – 198.94

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.2 ±16

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 65.92Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 45.14Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 3.93Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.7 ±12.8

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 36.04Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 104.74Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 58.16Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11283, 7530, 5464

/ 100 compat

Projected

115 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11283, 7530, 5464

Auto

27.3 24%

Teleop

66.7 59%

Endgame

19.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3313, 4593, 4181

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3313, 4593, 4181

Auto

37.8 20%

Teleop

98.8 52%

Endgame

53.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115pts

Blue projected score198.9pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.9
Score range: 91–223
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 132.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.2Season APEX404.7

27.3Auto37.8

66.7Teleop98.8

19.7Endgame53.9

94Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	44
teleop	44	84
endgame	28	16
foul	20	5
total	118	149

Result

Final score

118 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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