Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.77 – 201.46

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.6 ±16.4

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 79.04Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

877Pi Rho 'botics @ North Star

Provisional

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 1.31Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 24.42Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.6 ±12.4

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 7.96Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 72.58Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 120.92Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2883, 877, 4539

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2883, 877, 4539

Auto

34.9 32%

Teleop

60.1 55%

Endgame

13.9 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3275, 1710, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3275, 1710, 7257

Auto

48.6 27%

Teleop

94.0 53%

Endgame

35.9 20%

Strengths

· 7257 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score104.8pts

Blue projected score201.5pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.7
Score range: 82–224
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 130.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.6Season APEX522.6

34.9Auto48.6

60.1Teleop94

13.9Endgame35.9

91Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	35
teleop	57	161
endgame	17	101
foul	0	15
total	120	312

Result

Final score

120 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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