Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.59 – 122.22

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

267 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.4 ±13.3

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 82.55Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 67.64Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 50.4Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261 ±19.3

5929Raider Robotics

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 19.68Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6146Blackjacks

Season APEX 115Event APEX 63.95Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6749tERAbytes

Provisional

Season APEX 73.9Event APEX 38.59Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6175, 4607, 7578

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6175, 4607, 7578

Auto

40.8 20%

Teleop

110.6 55%

Endgame

51.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5929, 6146, 6749

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5929, 6146, 6749

Auto

8.8 7%

Teleop

66.4 55%

Endgame

44.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score200.6pts

Blue projected score122.2pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.4
Score range: 99–224
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 128.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

429.4Season APEX261

40.8Auto8.8

110.6Teleop66.4

51.3Endgame44.6

4Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	20
teleop	160	73
endgame	60	26
foul	0	0
total	267	119

Result

Final score

267 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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