Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.69 – 148.9

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.7 ±14.5

7068Mechanical Masterminds

Season APEX 81Event APEX 4.42Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2450Wind Chill

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 14.78Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX -5.51Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.3 ±17.7

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 82.34Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3134The Accelerators

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 52.87Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9745Lazer Sharkz

Provisional

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 13.69Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7068, 2450, 7048

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7068, 2450, 7048

Auto

3.9 32%

Teleop

4.8 40%

Endgame

3.4 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2654, 3134, 9745

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2654, 3134, 9745

Auto

5.0 4%

Teleop

86.8 68%

Endgame

36.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score13.7pts

Blue projected score148.9pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.2
Score range: -10–173
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 118 vs event baseline 130.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.7Season APEX243.3

3.9Auto5

4.8Teleop86.8

3.4Endgame36.5

87Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	21
teleop	13	24
endgame	28	19
foul	0	0
total	54	64

Result

Final score

54 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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