Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.9 – 11.73

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.6 ±14.1

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 20.64Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 60.6Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3026Orange Crush Robotics

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX -18.34Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.6 ±17.7

6453Bog Bots!

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX -2.9Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 30.07Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX -15.44Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5658, 3277, 3026

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5658, 3277, 3026

Auto

11.2 20%

Teleop

21.4 37%

Endgame

24.5 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6453, 8878, 4198

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6453, 8878, 4198

Auto

-2.1 0%

Teleop

8.0 62%

Endgame

7.0 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score62.9pts

Blue projected score11.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.2
Score range: -12–87
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 131.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.6Season APEX268.6

11.2Auto-2.1

21.4Teleop8

24.5Endgame7

85Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	16
teleop	72	12
endgame	33	16
foul	0	0
total	139	44

Result

Final score

139 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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