Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.61 – 147.31

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

126 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 21 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.7 ±16.9

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX -9.64Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3300Midwest WARRIORS

Provisional

Season APEX 45Event APEX 14.9Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 89.35Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.7 ±15.3

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 45.81Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5638JukeBots

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 57.07Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 44.43Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3278, 3300, 3276

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3278, 3300, 3276

Auto

20.9 22%

Teleop

59.8 64%

Endgame

12.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3313, 5638, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3313, 5638, 7530

Auto

18.8 14%

Teleop

81.4 62%

Endgame

31.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.6pts

Blue projected score147.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.7
Score range: 71–171
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 131.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.7Season APEX257.7

20.9Auto18.8

59.8Teleop81.4

12.7Endgame31.7

188Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	37
teleop	46	87
endgame	47	24
foul	0	10
total	126	158

Result

Final score

126 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 21 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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